I was asked several times after Thursday's show if the snow and lack of sleep over the previous 48 hours had effected me. If you weren't around, I made the bold prediction that the Baltimore Orioles would be a .500 team in 2010.

 

Now, before you call me a homer, or some other inappropriate name, I haven't predicted .500 for the O's since 2001. It took me that long for the misery of this franchise to sink in after the amazing two-year run of the mid-90's. Once I got it, I got it.

 

I've said over and over, that when teams fall off, having fewer wins from one year to another, someone has to get those wins. The American League East has three teams that will not win as many games as they did in 2009. I believe the Orioles will get some of those wins.

 

First, the New York Yankees will still contend for the American League Championship, but they won't do it following a 103-win regular season. They'll win close to 93-95 games, but still win the AL East. Those wins will go to someone.

 

Next, I know the Boston Red Sox have great pitching. They may have the ability to go six-deep in their rotation, but isn't that what we said in '09? While that won them 95-games, their line-up was a little better than it will be in 2010. You can't replace Jason Bay with Mike Cameron and tell me everything is going to be fine. If they don't make a move, they will lose three to five games in the win total, and injuries could make it even worse. Someone has to take those wins.

 

Finally, the Toronto Blue Jays are horrible. They were never that good, but they had pitching. They've lost their ace and have nothing that resembles replacing him. They won 75-games in 2009, and look closer to the O's '09 total of 64. That's 10-11 games. Someone has to get those wins.

 

I do realize what I'm saying. The Orioles would have to make a 17-game improvement from last season. I'm also counting that they have pulled closer to teams like Detroit, and Chicago, Cleveland and Oakland are going to drop a few games in the standings as well. You either get better or not. The Orioles have gotten better.

 

Rob Long