By now, you know that I like the Kansas Jayhawks in the Final Four. In fact, I like them to win the entire thing. I don't have to go over that again. I just believe this team is built, from top to bottom, better than everyone else.
The Kentucky Wildcats are one of the teams that everyone loves as a Final Four team. I'm not so sure about that. John Wall is an exceptional talent, but he doesn't quite do what a point guard needs to do to get his team deep into the tournament.
If you look at Wall, who had another double-double on Tuesday, he doesn't get his team involved in the big games. Tuesday was is third double-double on the season. This one was double digits and points and rebounds. Wall hasn't reached that statistical level in assists since late-November against UNC-Ashville. He had double-digit assists against Hartford, but only scored nine points. Wall's best assist games have been against the lower level teams on the schedule.
Wall seems to depend on his own abilities too much in big games. That's how South Carolina was able to beat Kentucky. He turns the game to one on one challenges, which is fine for him, but he leaves his teammates to do the same. In Tuesday night's 66-55 win against Alabama, Kentucky only had 10 assists, but 16 turnovers. Teams with great point guard play don't play that way.
Along with Kansas getting to the Final Four, I like Villanova getting there as well. Strange, but I was not sure about that happening until after the Georgetown loss. Scottie Reynolds showed me what he was made of when he led his team to a road win against West Virginia to rebound from that Georgetown embarrassment. That's was guard leadership, especially from a senior, does for you.
Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans will make their annual trip to the Final Four. It seems that way at least. He just consistantly puts one of the toughest teams in the country out on the floor. That's what it takes to win in March. The Spartans are also a favor to go far because they have Kalin Lucas, and he's a tournament-type guard.
There are a few teams I'm eyeing for that last slot and Syracuse isn't one of them. I think a team like Kansas State or Purdue could fall into that spot. I could even see Wisconsin or Georgetown surprising everyone and getting to the Final Four. It will not be four of the top five teams in the polls. It will not be the top four seeds this year either.
As far as Maryland goes, they are a Sweet 16 team this year, if they stay healthy. They have seniors who aren't going home early. Also, Gary Williams is one of the best coaches in the country, and this is a Gary Williams team.
Rob Long